politics · 2026-06-30
India Preps Monsoon Plan for 12 States
Centre has drawn up contingency plans for 12 states facing potential rainfall deficits due to emerging El Nino conditions this monsoon season.El Nino could cut kharif crop output, threatening food inflation. India's 2023 El Nino shaved ~7% off rice production, forcing export curbs.Farmers in rain-dependent states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana face crop loss risk, while urban consumers may see higher food prices.
Which 12 states are on the contingency list?
The govt has not released the full list publicly yet, but historically vulnerable states include Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Rajasthan. These rely heavily on monsoon rain rather than irrigation. For example, ~52% of India's farmland is rain-fed.
How much of India's farmland lacks irrigation?
About 52% of India's net sown area, roughly 73Mn hectares, depends entirely on rainfall. States like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh have irrigation coverage below 30%. Even Maharashtra, India's second-largest agricultural state, irrigates only ~20% of its cropland.
Which crops are most rain-sensitive?
Rice and sugarcane need the most water. Pulses like tur dal are extremely rain-sensitive since they are grown on marginal, unirrigated land. Cotton, sown heavily in Maharashtra and Gujarat during kharif, also suffers. In 2023, cotton output fell ~12%, tightening domestic textile supply.
Do all El Nino years cause drought in India?
Not always. Of 13 El Nino episodes since 1950, roughly 7 coincided with below-normal monsoons. The 1997 El Nino, one of the strongest ever, barely affected Indian rainfall. Strength, timing, and the competing Indian Ocean Dipole all matter. A positive IOD can offset El Nino's drying effect.
How does El Nino actually reduce Indian rain?
El Nino warms Pacific surface waters, weakening the pressure gradient that pulls moisture-laden winds toward India. During 2023's El Nino, the June-Sep rainfall was ~6% below normal. The 2015 El Nino was worse, cutting output enough to push pulses inflation above 40% in some months.
What drives the Pacific warming in El Nino?
El Nino begins when trade winds along the equatorial Pacific weaken. Normally these winds push warm surface water westward toward Indonesia. When they slacken, warm water pools near South America instead. This shift occurs every 2-7 years. NOAA monitors sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region to declare an event.
How does the Indian Ocean Dipole counter it?
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole means the western Indian Ocean warms relative to the east, pulling extra moisture toward India and East Africa. In 2019, a strong positive IOD rescued India's monsoon despite a concurrent El Nino, delivering above-normal rainfall. IMD now tracks both signals jointly.
What tools does the govt use to cushion crops?
The govt maintains a buffer stock of ~30Mn tonnes of rice and wheat via FCI. It can impose stock limits on traders, ban exports as it did for rice in 2023, or release grain at subsidized rates. PMFBY crop insurance covered ~16Mn hectares in kharif 2024, compensating farmers for yield losses.
Could food prices spike if kharif output falls?
Yes, meaningfully. Kharif accounts for ~55% of India's total foodgrain output. In 2023, rice production dropped to ~106Mn tonnes from ~114Mn tonnes the prior year, prompting the govt to ban non-basmati rice exports. Vegetable and pulses prices could see 10-15% spikes if sowing is delayed.
Who beyond farmers bears the inflation hit?
Low-income urban households spend ~45% of income on food, so even a 10% spike in rice or pulses prices erodes purchasing power sharply. Restaurant chains like Jubilant FoodWorks have flagged tomato and onion volatility as margin risks. State govts running mid-day meal schemes face higher procurement costs.
How do food prices affect RBI rate decisions?
Food carries ~39% weight in India's CPI basket. When food inflation breached 8% in late 2023, RBI held rates at 6.5% despite calls for cuts. Governor Das explicitly cited food price uncertainty. A kharif shortfall could delay the easing cycle, keeping home loan EMIs elevated for longer.
Could India import its way out of shortage?
Partially. India imported ~4Mn tonnes of pulses in FY24 to cool prices, mainly from Mozambique, Canada, and Myanmar. But rice is harder since India is the world's largest exporter. Global rice stocks are tight, and large-scale imports would push world prices up, as seen when Indonesia tried this in 2023.
Source: ndtv.com