The latest happenings around the Hormuz

What would Iran have to give up in a Hormuz deal?

Iran would have to give up sole control over shipping in the strait, accepting either a 50-50 split of the corridor with Oman or a reduced oversight role, dropping unilateral tolls in favor of jointly-administered service fees, and allowing free civilian passage without Iranian military interference.

What routing split did Oman first propose?

Oman proposed dividing the corridor equally between Iranian and Omani waters, with inbound vessels using one side and outbound vessels the other. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran rejected this 50-50 split, instead wanting Iran to oversee both lanes on its side.

Why does 'open' strait still worry the US?

A US official told Reuters the deal would 'open' the strait, but analysts at the Institute for the Study of War argue an open strait under Iranian management, with Iran collecting fees and separately handling military vessels, isn't a return to the pre-war status quo.

How does Iran justify charging fees?

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the word 'tolls' but defended charging 'service fees' for pilotage, navigational assistance and maritime safety, administered jointly with Oman, saying Iran isn't seeking arbitrary transit tolls despite Trump insisting the strait stay open with no fees.

Why was an Indian cargo ship attacked near Hormuz?

The Indian cargo vessel sank near Yemeni waters after being struck by a projectile, India's shipping minister said. All 14 crew were rescued by the Yemeni coastguard. The strike fits a pattern of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping near Yemen amid the wider Gulf and Red Sea maritime conflict.

Why do Houthis target ships near Yemen?

Yemen's Houthis began attacking Red Sea shipping in late 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians, later expanding to a naval blockade against Israeli-linked vessels and, from July, a declared embargo against Saudi Arabia, striking tankers with missiles and drones.

How widespread are these maritime attacks?

Houthi forces conducted 201 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea between October 2023 and December 2024, causing 12 deaths, and were involved in over 2,300 conflict events across the MENA region, killing 1,467 people total.

Has this happened to Indian ships before?

Yes. In May, an Indian-flagged dhow sailing from Somalia to Sharjah caught fire and sank after an attack off Oman's coast; all 14 crew were rescued by the Omani coastguard, prompting India to call the strike "unacceptable."

How much of the market rally is about Hormuz?

Brent's slide to a third straight session and 10%-plus weekly drop tracked directly with the Hormuz optimism, per market data, but actual shipping through the strait has barely moved. Traders are pricing in a deal that hasn't yet changed physical crude flows, so the rally is running ahead of the tanker traffic itself.

Has crude actually started flowing again?

No. Since the US-Iran memorandum was signed, crude outbound shipments from the Persian Gulf have been limited to a few isolated cargoes, with the seven-day moving average near zero and well below the 2025 baseline, per shipping trackers.

What about LNG and other cargo through Hormuz?

Outbound LNG and fertilizer shipments show no visible restart at all, with AIS-traceable flows still near zero. Inbound agricultural cargo has ticked up modestly but remains below 2025 averages, showing only a partial, fragile recovery.