economy · 2026-10-12
Why your grocery bills may stay high for months
Photo: via The Economic Times
Food prices in India are rising and may stay high through early 2027. Economists say a weak monsoon and the West Asia crisis (conflict in that region) are the main reasons, so your grocery bill could stay heavy for a while.
Why are onions rising when tomatoes fell?
Food inflation numbers average out opposite price moves, so one vegetable can spike while another crashes. In August, onions were up 48.27% year-on-year while tomatoes fell 31.09% and potatoes 13.14%, but the cheaper items did not offset the costlier ones, keeping the whole basket rising. Onions also have a seasonal surge each August-September, and this one has stretched beyond the usual two months.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where Pacific Ocean waters warm, shifting global weather. In India, it typically weakens the monsoon, reducing rainfall and hurting harvests. A weak monsoon means less food reaches markets, driving up prices of staples like onions and pulses, keeping grocery bills high.
Is 7% food inflation high for India?
For India, yes. Food inflation crossed 7% in a few past years, but it has mostly hovered around 4-5% recently. Economists expect it to rise to 7-8% over the next three to six months, which is high for a country that relies heavily on monsoon harvests.
Why can't farmers just plant more now?
We could not find a reliable answer to this yet.
Can the government really control this?
The government can act, but not fully. It is trying to cool onion prices by releasing buffer stocks and selling them at a fixed price of Rs 35 per kg (about 40 US cents). But the main drivers, the weak monsoon and West Asia's energy costs, are outside its control. Economists say food inflation may cross 7% by October 2026 and stay high until early 2027.
Why does West Asia affect my grocery bill?
The conflict in West Asia has pushed up global crude oil prices. Higher crude makes diesel and fertilisers costlier, and farmers, truckers, and food packagers pass those costs on to you. Even with a good monsoon, energy costs alone would keep grocery bills high for months.
What is Kharif vs Rabi?
Kharif and Rabi are India's two main farming seasons. Kharif crops are sown with the monsoon rains and harvested around now, in autumn. Examples include rice and onions. Rabi crops, like wheat and pulses, are sown in winter and harvested in spring. Poor monsoon rains can shrink the Kharif harvest and leave reservoirs low, hurting Rabi crops too.
How does the diesel price feed into my grocery bill?
Diesel powers the tractors, trucks and ships that grow, harvest and move food. When diesel hit a record $6.60 a gallon on September 11, 2026, every step of that chain got costlier, and those costs get passed down the line to your cart. Trucking firms say fuel is 30-40% of their costs, so a jump like this lands on the shelf price.
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com